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Descartes on the Lost Simplicity of Mathematics

Exploration

René Descartes, while reading the mathematical works of his time, found himself disappointed. The methods were overly complex, and the problems addressed seemed trivial or…

A Cautionary Note on the Central Limit Theorem

Note

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is fundamental in probability theory. It states that, given independent samples drawn from a fixed distribution with constant variance, the…

Let’s Retire ‘A-Priori’

Note

I’ve always wondered why some people in Bayesian statistics still use the archaic term ‘a-priori’ for prior probabilities. Does it carry a special meaning that ‘prior’ doesn’…

The Misnomer of the ‘Normal’ Distribution: Origins and a Case for Renaming

Note

This post is based on Chapter 7 of Edwin Jaynes’ Probability Theory.

White Crows, Black Swans, and the Trouble with Inductive Logic

Note

According to Aristotelian logic, the statements “All crows are black” and “All non-black things are non-crows” are logically equivalent. Some take this to mean that…

Understanding Uncertainty

Book

I recently had the pleasure of reading Understanding Uncertainty (2013) by Dennis V. Lindley. In this insightful work, Lindley explores how we navigate uncertainty…

Oh…Lindley!

Exploration

Recently, I came across an editorial comment by chance. Dennis V. Lindley, as a referee for a paper, begins with:

Bernoulli’s Fallacy: A Therapy Session for Statisticians

Book

I recently had the pleasure of reading Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science. For me, it felt like a professional therapy session…